Welcome to Episode 113 of the Sports Card Strategy Show with hosts Paul Hickey, The Sports Card Doctor Chad Guell, and Kendall "The Lefty" McKee of NoOffseason.com.

Today we discuss:

Trends related to historical Bowman 1st card data for MLB prospects, different buying windows, who would we really invest in?

Why Wyatt Langford is our top investment pick from this release.

Is Paul Skenes an investible pitcher?

Why you should be fading Max Clark.

We took a different approach with this episode. We challenged ourselves to look at data from the past releases and use it to make projections/predictions on which guys out of Bowman Draft 2023 should we be buying singles of… WHEN? And what do we expect them to go for during their selling marker? And WHEN do we think their selling marker will be?

Normally we would say “go back to 2022 Bowman Draft, 2021 Bowman Draft, etc. when a new release comes out, but we’re going to examine if that is the best path to profit in today’s ep; or if there are ways to engage now with 2023 Bowman Draft and make money in the next 6-12 months.

Quick Facts about Bowman Draft 2023. 

• Why we’re excited about Bowman Draft.
  • Contains 1st DP Chrome Autos for top players in the 2023 MLB Draft, hence the name of the release.
• Top 10 picks with no autos in this release:
  • Dylan Crews (#2), Walker Jenkins (#5) and Chase Dollander (#8) overall picks
    • Druw Jones was not in 2022 Draft
    • Jack Leiter was not in 2021 Draft
    • Heston Kjerstad WAS in 2020 Draft
• Contains 1st DP Chrome Autos for top prospects:
  • Paul Skenes, P, LSU, #1 overall pick - Pirates
  • Max Clark, OF, HS, #3 overall pick - Tigers
  • Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida, #4 overall pick - Rangers
  • Jacob Wilson, SS, HS, #6 overall pick - A’s
  • Blake Mitchell, C, HS, #8 overall pick - Royals
  • Braden Taylor, SS, TCU, #19 overall pick - Rays
• There are Retrofractors, which debuted in Bowman Chrome Baseball 2023
  • What is a Retrofractor? https://ripped.topps.com/definition/retrofractor/ 
    • Josh Gibson and Carl Yastrzemski are in this release
• The Tom Brady Cards - UGH - so sick of these, but… good marketing? Does it bring new interest? More demand?
  • Expos catcher Tom Brady. Yes, that Tom Brady, who passed on a chance to hang out with Youppi and call a crumbling Olympic Stadium his office to go play football instead. The seven-time Super Bowl champ has a standard insert and autograph with him in an Expos uniform. 

New Trend

• Holliday has bucked the trend and been the only one that has consistently risen in value since release
• Early indicators are that Wyatt Langford is following this new trend 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect Base Auto Raw Sales.
• December 13 - $180, $192.73, $274.99 $279.95, $289, $289.99, $299, $299, $299
• December 14 - $300, $299.99, $316, $340, $345
• This is the pattern that happened with Holliday. We think Langford will do the same due to his trajectory to make the MLB in 2024
  • What’s interesting is that even though they’re in two different draft classes, they may have the same selling marker, thus Langford following Holliday’s pattern makes sense.

Is there finally an investable pitcher?

• • Skenes: Invest or Fade?

• NO. AVOID SKENES.
• Unless he’s going to hit.

TAKEAWAYS: How to make money on 2023 Bowman Draft

Do’s:

• Buy Wyatt Langford 1st Base Autos in X-Y price range
  • Keep raw or grade at PSA
  • Sell at Call-up or pre-call up hype Text Sports Cards to 1-833-992-5727

• Buy Wyatt Langford 1st Refractors Raw
  • Grade in bulk at PSA
  • Sell at Call-up or pre-call up hype Text Sports Cards to 1-833-992-5727

• Buy Jumbo Hobby boxes and keep them sealed
  • Sell in March-April

Don'ts:

• Spread yourself too thin across prospects
• Takeaway - Don’t Be A Hero. You’re Not An MLB Scout. Sorry.
• Be tricked by non-firsts of top names on the checklist.
  • Don’t Buy non-firsts of top players that you’ve heard us talk about from this 2023 Bowman Draft release on the checklist…
  • Examples: Jackson Chourio, Ethan Salas, Jackson Holliday, Xavier Isaac and more
  • Why? Because this is like buying SECOND YEAR or THIRD YEAR cards for guys like Joe Burrow, Anthony Edwards, etc.
• Buy Tom Brady Cards - fun promotion; interesting footnote; no selling marker
• Buy Prospects that have an unknown ETA or Expected Call-Up Date past 2025
  • Risk = Mayer

Other Key Takeaways from this research

SAFE WAY TO MAKE MONEY

• NEW PATTERN FOR LANGFORD, BASED ON HOLLIDAY which we talked about above. But also…Don’t forget to look at Going Where They Ain’t…
  • Opportunities to buy Holliday and Chourio right now are there while everyone else is buying Skenes and Langford
• You can safely make profit buying the top prospect from Bowman Draft a year after the initial release and selling at call-up (this is the safe Dave Ramsey of sports cards way)
  • Great safe move to buy in December (for example, aka - Buy Holliday now)
• Early selling point - If you’re already 50% up or more; especially if you’re 2x-3x already during March on your top prospect cards, consider offloading if there’s hype and don’t wait until call-up
• There was hype around Tork in Feb/March 2022. People who waited until his August call-up that year lost big.

DON’T GO TOO DEEP

• • With other deeper prospects with unknown projected call-up dates, two things…
    • sales volume is lower, thus ceiling is lower (PCA, Cowser)
    • Prospect fatigue sets in, and if call-ups happen at the wrong time (too late or wrong time of year) (Gonzales, Lawlar), you can lose HUGE
  • So the risk with Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee, is the same risk with Gonzales, Lawlar and now Mayer.
  • There is Bigger upside selling during Spring Training Hype / Never wait past call-up

• What do do if you’re stuck with fatigued guys…New Selling Markers for prospects with unknown call up date to avoid prospect fatigue:

• • I know we say wait until call-up, but if the call-up hasn’t happened by August, you could be screwed, and be in a Mayer type scenario, so even if you’re holding guys like Druw Jones, Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee, you may want to consider selling them during the March Spring Training Hype/News Cycle or at the latest, THE FUTURES GAME!. Stay tuned for Sell Alerts! Text Sports Cards to 1-833-992-5727
  • https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/mlb-announces-spring-breakout-prospect-series.html 
• We advise fading guys who have already been called up, but is there an opportunity to profit from guys like Mayer and Benny Montgomery because they’re so low now?
  • Marcelo Mayer?
  • Montgomery?
  • Termarr Johnson?
  • Elijah Green?
  • Brooks Lee?

We'd love your questions and comments!

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Paul Hickey is the founder of NoOffseason.com, home of the Sports Card Investment Report and The Sports Card Strategy Show. He is also a contributing writer for Sports Card Investor.